So, what do we know about rural Hispanic political behavior in general, and in this most recent election in particular?
The same poll found that only 27% of rural Hispanic respondents indicated they would vote for Donald Trump, compared with 28% of urban and 25% of suburban Hispanic respondents.
Of the 38 majority-Hispanic rural counties (both noncore and micropolitan counties as defined by the federal Office of Management and Budget), President Trump won 28 and President-elect Biden won 10.
Moreover, in these counties, the change in support for President Trump from 2016 to 2020 correlates significantly with the proportion of the Hispanic population; in other words, in majority-Hispanic rural counites with larger Hispanic populations, President Trump did better (see the figure below).
), there seems to be some significant movement toward President Trump in the aggregate voting totals in these majority-Hispanic rural counties.